Led by a landslide victory by the Congress, the UPA has returned to power, with a strong coalition that removes a huge overhang among investors. I had indicated in my previous blog that markets will revisit October 2008 lows if the new government has to take support of the Third Front, which includes Left. The Indian voter turnout to be smarter voted for stability, defeated communal forces and sideline Left for their anti-development economic policies.

The expectation from the new government is reflected in the first trading day after election results on Saturday with the benchmark indices frozen to upper limit of 15 per cent in just nine seconds and trading was halted for the day. Investors now expect big bang economic reform with key pending bills such as insurance and pension to be passed. The market expected to be firm from here and the FII inflows expected to increase due to political stability.

If the corporate earnings cycle improves, we may revisit January 8, 2008 Sensex high of 21,000 any time in the next 12 months. Most US macro data and credit market indicators are showing some improvement. However, incremental gains are modest and indicate continued growth contraction ahead following two quarters of GDP decline of -6.4% (QoQ) and -6.1% (QoQ) during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first of 2009.

However, the historical evidence shows investors entering the equity market at lower level get a market return of over 50 per cent within six months and the recent slowdown considerably thereafter. Investors entering the equity market after 150 per cent performance get a modest return after three-five years. According to a Credit Suisse report, if you buy the market after a drop of 40 per cent, the probability of posting a positive return after three years is over 70 per cent. After five years, it goes up to over 80 per cent, against close to 40 per cent if you buy after a long rally.

The Sensex has appreciated by 75 per cent in two months from its low of 8,160 on March 9, 2009. So, the short-term upside is limited and for long term gains, economic recovery is the pre-condition.

It was some crash about which I heard today. A friend, I have known since the early ’80s, is in a state of near-shock and, now laughs and cries at the same time, by merely thinking of what’s happened to their investment.

Imagine in investment of yours crashing about 60 per cent in just over an year. She had bought a flat for Rs 75 lakh. It was meant to be an investment. Everything was rosy with the real estate then.

The ‘experts’ in real estate always say “location, location, location” when you consider buying a property. That is precisely what she thought when buying the flat. After-all it was barely 10 or 12 km from the international airport, which is very near to the airport for someone familiar with Bangalore.

About a month or two ago, she tried to find out what’s happened to her investment now that there are frequent news reports about the property market bouncing back. She had missed the opportunity to sell when the market had peaked, she thought. On trying to sell their property. instead of earning a profit, the highest price being quoted was Rs 30 lakh. They had rented out the flat and are now happy with whatever rent they are getting.

That left me wondering what must happened to the ‘investments’ at the other end of the city where there is not even water. The borewells have dried up. Many of them are high-end flats going up to Rs 1 crore or more. Today they got no water and any water they get is supplied on water tankers.

OK, back to my friend. She’s now praying that the hopes of a ‘V’ shaped recovery happens in the property market as many hope will happen with the general economy. But, that could take time in case of the real estate sector.

Google is launching Google Video for business, a customized video platform aimed at businesses for internal use. Google is targeting Heads of training and HR and anyone that uses internal videos at the company. The product will be included in Google Apps Premier Edition for free, with 3 GB of storage per user account.

This is a “Zero billion dollar market today” said the director of product management Matthew Glotzbach in a briefing about the product. “But we will change this and Google video for business will be easy to use.” See Google Video Overview here.

These videos will basically have the same features and limitations as YouTube, including upload size and file type limits. Videos have access control, even if they are embedded outside of the intranet or Google Apps, and can be tagged and commented on just like YouTube. These videos are quick and easy to create and can be uploaded and shared in a number of ways: for training, to communicate end of quarter results, to showcase employee achievements and finally just for some laughs and fun during a stressful overworked the day.

So, what do you think as head of training or Human Resources at your firm? How will you use this? Will this replace your in-house video production crew? Will you use video more in video sharing sites to describe a new service or for quick updates?