A Business Standard editorial piece published today suggests that India’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter of FY2008 will likely be slower than the 5.3 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter of the fiscal.

Hang on, there is more bad news.

In his latest column published in ToI’s Sunday edition, Swaminathan S Ankelasaria Aiyar ventured a calculated guess about how long this downturn could last. He wrote:

 “We should expect slowdown to continue for several quarters…We may expect some small improvement in the last quarter of 2009, but a return to a fast growth will have to wait till late 2010, or even 2011.”

Till about a month ago, many analysts were predicting that the Indian economy will be back on track by the first or the second quarter of fiscal 2010. Aiyar says that we may have to wait till 2011.

Even now, even by the most optimistic estimates, customers will not be beating down our doors at the end of three years.

All analysts have admitted at some point or the other that all their upturn-cometh predictions are based on a number of assumptions – like the US economy will show signs of recovery within the next two quarters and India’s fiscal stimulus doses would kick in before the next quarter. Some are also factoring in the emergence of a disruptive force (like rural connectivity through 3G networks) that would do unimaginable things to Indian economy like the Internet did the last time.

Putting all estimates together, it would be safe to say that the Indian economy may see at least three years of sluggish growth before it gains tempo. And that the next two years in particular are going to be painful for everyone concerned in the corporate world.

It will be especially tough for young executives — mostly in their mid-to-late twenties — who have joined corporate workforce in large numbers during the last six to seven years. These executives will see tough and uncertain conditions at workplace perhaps for the first time in their careers.

Estimates say that the slowdown has claimed around 10 lakh jobs across industry sectors since September 2008. And the churn has just begun.

The young executives have gone through the first part of the course correction drill. Lifestyle changes have been brought about – new home and car loans have been put off or cancelled; as for the ones already taken, distress calls to parents have been made; many have applied to management colleges where they could sit out the storm while it lasts.

Those who are still around could face deeper cuts as time passes by.  With every turn of the screw, they will lose some of the baggage accumulated during happy times – best friends will get busy, long time suitors will disappear and quicksilver spouses will vanish. In short, it will not be an easy ride.

Tough as it will be, this will also serve as an introspection time for the first-generation corporate worker. When the new convert will compare his shaky corporate career with the serene vocation of those of his father’s generation – who receive regular, decent hikes in salaries and pensions regardless of the state of the economy – he will be forced to think that there is some merit after all in the largely unenterprising but secure government jobs.

Recent media reports highlight a renewed interest among youth in government vocations.

While all this plays out, some of these first-timers will stick out these tough months, some nervously toiling at one job, others moving from one job to another (if they find them, that is) and some barely scraping through with freelance work and family support. But stick around they would, learning and unlearning things in few years what they would normally take a decade to discover.

All members of this particular tribe will have one trait in common, one reckons. Somewhere down the road, these guys will figure the real reason they want to stick to their line of work for, and will then decide that this particular reason is bigger than everything else they stand to lose during this phase. The rest, as they would tell you later, was easy.

No prizes for guessing who will stand to make the most of new opportunities when the tide turns.